Macro + Policy Disturbances Continue To Fall, A Brief Analysis Of Changes in Copper And Zinc Supply And Demand

According to the SMM survey, since March 2021, the monthly output of domestic zinc concentrate has continued to rise, and the overall operating rate of zinc concentrate enterprises has steadily increased. After the raw material inventory of the refinery increased from June to July, the bargaining power of the zinc ore processing fee was transferred to the refinery, and the processing fee increased.

In September, the increase in zinc ore processing fees was hindered, and the regions were divided.

 According to SMM survey data, most of the new expansion of zinc mines in 2021 will be concentrated in overseas areas. After the expansion is completed, the global zinc concentrate production is expected to increase by 250,000 metal tons; compared with the expansion of domestic zinc mines from 2019 to 2021, it can be found that 2021 In 2010, the new domestic zinc concentrate output is expected to reach 203,000 metal tons, and the mines in the Xiangxi region of Hunan are expected to resume production at the end of the year.

 SMM predicts that processing fees will hardly fluctuate sharply in 2021. However, if the number of long-term import orders signed by the refinery in the third quarter is large enough, the refinery will have a relatively high ore processing fee when the inventory is relatively sufficient. In the fourth quarter, it will face the pressure of winter storage and the processing fee will increase. It is expected to face downward pressure again.

According to SMM's analysis and forecast on the balance of supply and demand of electrolytic copper, it can be seen that the adjusted balance of supply and demand from 2021 to 2023 is increasing year by year, but the actual growth rate of China's copper terminal consumption in 2021 is expected to decline year-on-year. A small surplus of supply, coupled with the risk of macro liquidity contraction, is expected to maintain a range of fluctuations in copper prices in the future.

Reprinted 2021 Zinc Die Casting Industry Chain Summit Forum ended successfully!